Dear friends,
The primary is over, but the counting is not. We will need to be patient, because the ranked-choice part of the tabulations does not begin until all of the absentee ballots are counted. With over 200,000 absentee ballots requested, the preliminary results could look very different; there are fewer than 76,000 votes between Adams and Wiley at this writing.
Last year, absentee results favored many progressive insurgents – which erased what appeared to be huge leads on primary night for more moderate incumbents. Will the pattern hold this year for progressive candidates like Maya Wiley, even if they’re running for open seats? Time will tell, but the public isn’t expected to get a peek at those mail-in ballots until July 12. So RCV isn’t the only variable that could change the results from election night.
If you want to know more about the likelihood of an upset, in which Wiley or Garcia overtakes Adams, you might enjoy this comprehensive accounting of how ranked choice voting has played out elsewhere. Here’s the upshot:
There have been 15 RCV races in the U.S. which were won by a candidate other than the first-round leader. That’s 3.8% of all single-winner RCV races in the U.S. since 2004, and 12% of all races which used multiple rounds of counting. Of those 15 races, 13 were won by the candidate who began in second place
I haven’t written about the Manhattan DA’s race; still, I’m happy to report that Tali Farhadian Weinstein did not buy the election, in spite of her best efforts. Alvin Bragg, a progressive candidate, looks like the winner. There is no ranked choice voting for this race.
Interesting read: Charles Blow’s “In NYC, Black is Back.”
Let’s move back into action. One of the interesting things I learned last week on a call with NY Renews is that the state legislative session that just ‘ended’ is not really over. The same session will continue when the legislature reconvenes in January.
This is significant because bills will not have to be reintroduced nor will sponsors have to repeat the process of gathering co-sponsors; instead, they will pick up where they left off. This means that important legislation, like the Climate and Community Investment Act, may be revived.
In addition to the new two-year session in Albany, there are other reasons that bills that didn’t make it might get another chance:
Lawmakers are widely expected to be called into session later this summer for anything from MTA leadership confirmations to impeachment proceedings, and by that time, there’s no telling what could be back on the table.
I am hoping that Assembly Bill A648, which extends the statute of limitations for civil actions for certain sexual offenses, will be one of those bills. The comparable Senate Bill passed, but A648 never reached the floor for a vote.
It wasn’t clear why the Adult Survivors Act — a bill to unlock a one-year lookback window for adult survivors of sexual abuse to file civil claims — didn’t move anywhere in the chamber despite almost no formal opposition and unanimous passage in the Senate.
In a recent interview, Assembly Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes remarked to WAMC’s Alan Chartock that she didn’t see the necessity of the bill, even though she was fully supportive of the 2019 Child Victims Act, which opened a long look-back window for those abused as children.
“I don't think this is the same situation, and I don't know if people need to have additional time to say 'Someone hurt me.' If someone hurt you, say it right now,” Peoples-Stokes said in the interview.
We have lots of anecdotal evidence that adult survivors of sexual assault frequently do not come forward in the immediate aftermath. This has just played out very publicly in the mayoral race with the allegations against Scott Stringer.
After hearing the interview, advocates and survivors from the nonprofit Safe Horizon wrote to Assembly leadership
with an offer to meet up and educate them on how trauma works.
The group of advocates blasted those comments as “harmful to survivors and demonstrate a lack of understanding of the trauma, fear and shame so many victims face in the immediate aftermath of a sexual assault.”
Please contact your Assembly member and urge them to press leadership for a summer vote on the Adult Survivors Act, A648. Here’s a ready-made message.
Have a great day!
with love,
L