Hi friends,
One of the most compelling things I’ve read about Joe Biden’s situation — and our own — is Adam Grant’s There’s a Name for the Trap Biden Faces.
Grant is an organizational psychologist and he provides the language we need for the phenomenon we’re observing:
escalation of commitment to a losing course of action. In the face of impending failure, extensive evidence shows, instead of rethinking our plans, we often double down on our decisions.
Grant notes that this phenomenon of rationalizing earlier decisions — rather than re-examining them — plays out in many settings and satisfies the impulse to stay and fight. It’s why we stay too long in bad relationships and toxic workplaces. It’s why the US did not get out of Vietnam when there were serious indications that the war could not be won.
Biden’s situation, Grant points out, has all the features that make it ripe for escalating commitment to a losing strategy:
Escalation of commitment helps to explain why leaders are often so reluctant to loosen their grip on power. Losing a high-status position can make them feel they’re losing their place in the world. It leaves them with bruised egos and wounded pride.
Escalation is likely when people are directly responsible for and publicly attached to a decision, when it has been a long journey and the end is in sight, and when they have reasons to be confident that they can succeed.
Would you be willing to undergo an independent medical evaluation that included neurological and cognit-- cognitive tests and release the results to the American people?
[A]s you know, elections are about the future, not the past. They're about tomorrow, not yesterday. And the question on so many people's minds right now is, "Can you serve effectively for the next four years?"
But hold on. My-- I guess my point is, all that takes a toll. Do you have the mental and physical capacity to do it for another four years?
You can read the transcript and Biden’s responses; the gist is that Biden is comfortable with his identity as a tenacious fighter. He is unwilling to submit to medical testing that would be publicly shared. He believes in his own capacity.
You obviously have a long list of reasons to stay in the race. What would be your top three reasons to walk away? What information would convince you that it would be best not to run?”
Stephanopoulos didn’t ask this question, but he did press Biden to consider the polls and the calls from members of his own party. Biden does not trust the polls that show him behind and basically acknowledged that god himself would have to tell him not to run.
I continue to read the things that challenge my own thinking. Rebecca Solnit raises the question Why is the pundit class so desperate to push Biden out of the race?
Solnit criticizes the media for “wildly asymmetrical and inflammatory coverage” of Trump’s opponent, repeating the sins of 2016. She backs up her charge with the numbers of articles and editorials that focus on Biden’s fitness for office.
We are deciding whether this nation has a future as a more-or-less democratic republic this November, and on that rides the fate of the earth when it comes to acting on climate change. If the US falters at this decisive moment in the climate crisis, it will drag down everyone else’s efforts. Under Trump, it will. But the shocking supreme court decisions this summer and the looming threat of authoritarianism have gotten little ink and air, compared to the hue and cry about Biden’s competence.
Solnit quotes Nikole Hannah-Jones, who posits that — in spite of protestations that the media is simply reporting the news — what the media covers and how they cover it shapes public perceptions.
Solnit argues that the Biden Administration has governed effectively and that the media are generating a story that Biden is incompetent in order to produce a Republican victory.
I’m not sure why the media would want another Trump presidency, and Solnit does not explain this startling idea. The best answer she provides for her own question is that
the media knows how to cover a normal problem like a sub-par candidate; they don’t know how to cover something as abnormal and unprecedented as the end of the republic. So for the most part they don’t.
Charles M. Blow, another writer whom I much admire, has offered a more persuasive counter to the media drumbeat for Biden’s exit: Forcing Biden Out Would Have Only One Beneficiary: Trump.
Blow acknowledges that he would have preferred if Biden had decided not to run for a second term. He agrees with historian and presidential prognosticator Allan Lichtman, that Biden is still the Democrats’ best chance to beat Trump.
Blow also expresses the dangers of the public calls for Biden to step aside:
One of my favorite TV lines comes from Omar on “The Wire,” paraphrasing Emerson: “You come at the king, you best not miss.” A failed attempt to usurp a man in power risks his vengeance.
But I’ve been thinking of that line in another way as it relates to Biden. By building a case for Biden’s incapacity and his need for capitulation — without convincing him of the same — liberals risk further wounding their standard-bearer and increasing the probability of the thing they most desperately seek to avoid: Trump’s re-election.
The problem with Blow’s argument is that the damage has already been done.
And the media continues to report facts that contribute to our concerns about Biden’s health. A specialist in Parkinson’s disease visited the White House earlier this year and met with Biden’s own doctor.
White House visitor logs show the specialist visited 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue at least 10 times since 2022, nearly always visiting the White House Medical Unit (WHMU). The unit is large and services thousands of military personnel.
Biden’s own doctor performed a neurological exam to specifically rule out Parkinson's disease and declared the president “fit to serve.”
Politics is about public perceptions; I doubt an independent report of cognitive fitness would change many minds.
The looming threat of authoritarianism is the danger at hand. The moment for action is now.
Petition Democratic members of Congress and delegates to the convention to call on President Biden to pass the torch!
with love,
L